Homicide fell most where it had risen most, not where federal recovery funding was highest
Change in homicide rate per 100,000 residents from 2021 to 2024 in 453 cities in 39 states. Each dot is one city.
More money, no bigger decline
Federal recovery funding compared with demographically similar cities in the same state
Bigger surge, bigger decline
The 2019-2021 rise in homicide predicts the fall that followed
Source: Analysis by Ethan Doshi (working paper) of U.S. Treasury State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds reports and FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data compiled by Jacob Kaplan. Covers the 453 cities with complete homicide reporting in 2019, 2021 and 2024. Funding is each city’s American Rescue Plan recovery award compared with what demographically similar cities in the same state received; 0% means it matched its peers. Lines are least-squares fits; shaded bands are 95% confidence intervals. Download the data.